Election day is nearly upon us. And there is a distinct possibility that the outcome may not be to our liking. We should therefore brace ourselves for this protentional situation. I'm going to turn to Deuteronomy 4. It's a fantastic chapter, worth reading under any circumstances actually. It's Moses exhorting the Jews to remain faithful to God. Of particular interest to us in these trying times are the portions of the chapter around verse 35. Moses asks a series of questions: For ask now regarding the early days that were before you, since the day that God created man upon the earth, and from one end of the heavens to the other end of the heavens, whether there was anything like this great thing, or was the likes of it heard? Did ever a people hear God's voice speaking out of the midst of the fire as you have heard, and live? Or has any god performed miracles to come and take him a nation from the midst of another nation, with trials, with signs, and with wonders, and with war and with a strong hand, and with an outstretched arm, and with great awesome deeds, as all that the Lord your God did for you in Egypt before your eyes? And then Moses explains why God has done all these things: You were shown these things so that you would know that the LORD is God; there is no other besides Him. (The last part of the verse, in Hebrew, is considered a sort of charm. If one focuses on it "אֵ֥ין ע֖וֹד מִלְּבַדּֽוֹ" then God protects the the individual from harm.) The important point being that there is no other besides God. He's the one in control, and everything that happens is in the furtherance of His plans, whether we can understand how or not. So have faith, and carry on. God bless us all.
Truth be told I think it's safe to say there is no outcome that looks particularly good at this election. I can see one outcome being more desirable than the other, even if it isn't particularly desirable in the sense of being an ideal situation. Sometimes it seems these elections might as well be a choice between two broken legs or a myocardial infarction.
That was Joe in his animangus state (cf, Harry Potter), sniffing Pence's hair. I have the perfect SNL skit. Do the VP debate, and Biden comes out and sniffs Harris' hair. Then, Jeff Goldblum comes out immediately and starts sniffing Pence's hair. Then, they could answer questions like happened at the VP debate. Q: "Mr. Vice President, is the phrase "White House" evidence of systemic racism in the institutions of the USA? A: "Kangaroos hop in Australia." Q: "Thank you Mr. VP. Ms. VP, I mean, Senator Harris, has the President of the United States personally killed 2 million people or 4 million people?" A: "If I answer that question, the answer will become the narrative of the campaign and the Harris-Biden administration intends to rescue koalas in Bangladesh." Q: "Thank you, Madame President." Oh, (random thought)... to the idiots that just got arrested for plotting to kidnap Governor Whitmer of Michigan and to then overthrow the state governent. Next time to plan something like that, (which should be in, oh, 15-20 years),maybe yous shouldn't work out the plan on SOCIAL MEDIA. See, both words. SOCIAL. Which means "NOT PRIVATE" and MEDIA, which means "BROADCAST." Geez.
Out here in the boonies, guess I plan to make a showing and social-distance in line with the rest of the miserable crowd. EDIT: Oops! Just got my mail-in stuff. Will be better, with work hours etc. I've been social distancing since the 6th grade, anyhow.
Walking past a small gathering of noisy patriots. One (looks like a CW star) yells at me: "Do you love your country?" Quietly answer: "I love the constitution." Him: "That wasn't what I asked!" Me: "Are you sure about that?" Him: "I said, "Do you love your country?"" Me: "I don't like this planet." "Oh yeah? Then why don't you...ah, never mind." Me: "Have a nice day! "Old hippie!!!" Sheriff deputy snickers.
The polls don't seem credible to me. Biden up 14 points nationally?! But I believed them in 2016 and was wrong. So now I don't know what to think.
Clinton won the popular vote, 46.1% to 48.2% Trump won the electoral vote, 304 to 227. , The race will again come down to the electoral college, which does not look promising for Trump right now. It changes almost daily.
And the final nationwide polling had Clinton up about 2 points, which ended up being accurate. If Biden is up double digits, (which does not seem believable to me, but my feelings are irrelevant) then Trump is going to lose toss up states. He's hurting with suburban female voters, and seniors, and rust belt voters in general. The map therefore looks somewhat different from 4 years ago.
Dig in to the polling data. Most of the polls are heavily over sampling Democrats as the pollsters are adding to their weighting model in the belief that the riot/protest/ orangemanbad vote will turn out an overwhelming and unprecedented turnout.
It might also be in the hope of persuading Trump voters that they are increasingly irrelevant and they might as well stay home. Given the concern people on the right (and some on the left) have about what four years of Biden/Harris would look like it seems more likely to me that the constant siren song that the election is all but in the bag for Biden will energise anyone who wants to try to stop it from happening. Given the four years of orange man bad howling we've seen I wonder if the Democrats will accept the result if the orange man wins again. They still don't quite seem to have come to terms with Queen Hillary losing four years ago.
The one that showed Biden up +14 oversampled D's by +9 and undersampled R's by -3... the intent is to "model" the "anticipated" turnout. In other gnus, 11 witchdoctors rolled the bones of 3 chickens and learned that Hillary won the electoral college in 2016...
Didn't she win it only to be thwarted by a combination of the badorangeman and hackers? Some space aliens beamed thoughts into the electors and forced them to vote for The Donald when they had intended to vote for the only rational candidate who stood. Obviously it was the badorangeman in league with whatever the Russian equivalent of MK ULTRA was that day. It couldn't have been anything else. Surely the American people wouldn't vote for anyone other than the Most Lovable Hillary?
The critical election will be in 2024 after a transitional, relatively moderate period. If certain players even survive. 4 years to redeem the squandered time.
Current forecast is a Biden win. Lots can still change though https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/